2026, according to the VCs writing the checks

Local investors on AI, exits, and what comes next for startups and South Florida

As 2026 kicks into gear, venture investors find themselves at a rare pause point. The market is no longer in freefall, but it hasn’t returned to excess either. AI is reshaping how companies are built, exits are slowly re-opening, and regions like ours are testing their staying power as long-term innovation hubs.

To understand what may come next, Refresh Miami spoke with a half dozen investors whose work sits squarely between founders, capital, and LPs. Their collective outlook on 2026 offers a snapshot worth revisiting years from now.

AI? Early, uneven, and moving from theory to practice

Despite public chatter about hype and inflated valuations, investors largely agree on one thing: AI is still early.

“I believe we are still in the early days as far as the general progress of building artificial intelligence and what it is capable of,” said Justis Mendez, co-founder of OneSixOne Ventures. While acknowledging that “there are clearly some companies that are being overvalued,” he pointed to past cycles where enduring winners emerged from periods of excess. “I fundamentally believe AI will have a much larger transformation on society.”

Karl Alomar, Managing Partner at M13, echoed that sentiment, noting that while some pockets may be overheated, “there is so much foundational work still to be built that it’s difficult to define the true ceiling of the category.” Over time, he expects shakeouts, but also believes the biggest winners could become “some of the most valuable companies in history.”

Several investors pointed to a shift from experimentation to execution. David Blumberg, founder and managing partner of Blumberg Capital, described AI as entering its most operational phase. “We’re moving from AI that makes predictions to AI that can take action,” he said. “That’s where real value creation begins.”

Florida Funders partner Saxon Baum described the moment as “the third inning of AI,” arguing that the early wave of shallow products has already faded. What’s emerging instead are “deep, verticalized B2B companies” embedding AI directly into enterprise workflows.

At Fuel Venture Capital, general partner and chief venture officer Selene Casabal highlighted the tension between real innovation and public speculation. “Both realities now coexist,” she said, pointing to genuine breakthroughs alongside an environment that has “compressed timelines and amplified expectations.”

**Selene Casabal**, Fuel Venture Capital

Will 2026 be the year of exits and IPOs?

While uncertainty remains, investors are cautiously optimistic about liquidity in 2026.

Alomar pointed to a rebound already underway. “The IPO market saw a meaningful recovery in 2025,” he said, and expects that momentum to carry forward, even as secondary markets give founders and early shareholders more flexibility. The result, in his view, will be a healthier balance between public listings and private liquidity.

Fuel Venture Capital shares that outlook. Casabal noted that several late-stage companies have already signaled interest in going public, with fundamentals that look very different from prior cycles. “This positions 2026 as an IPO cycle defined less by speculation and more by companies entering the public markets with real scale and operating maturity,” she said.

Others expect discipline to define outcomes. Blumberg believes public markets will remain selective, favoring “well-run, revenue-driven companies,” while M&A continues to play a major role in exits.

Jackie Baumgarten, Managing Partner at IDC Ventures, similarly expects “a selective reopening,” with opportunities for companies that can demonstrate clear economics and paths to profit.

South Florida is a maturing, but still evolving market

Views on South Florida were largely positive, though nuanced.

Mendez described ongoing momentum fueled by a mix of imported and local talent. “There’s a really interesting mix of imported and homegrown talent that is creating a flywheel of great companies being headquartered here,” he said, adding that Florida’s wealth base creates strong LP potential if paired with education around venture investing.

Alomar noted that South Florida differs from traditional startup hubs. The region attracts experienced founders and operators, which makes it “an attractive environment for cultivating LP relationships,” while also serving as a strategic gateway to Latin America and a center for blockchain and Web3 activity.

Baum pointed to companies founded during the 2020–2021 boom now reaching real scale. As these companies approach liquidity, he expects the ecosystem to compound by producing new founders, operators, and angel investors. Still, he flagged the need for more institutional LP participation to support larger funds.

Casabal, a Miami native, framed Florida as a capital markets city coming into its own. With founders choosing to stay and build locally, she sees a foundation forming that can sustain long-term growth, even if the ecosystem is still mid-build.

What will matter most in 2026?

Looking ahead, investors expect a sharper focus on execution.

Baumgarten summed it up simply: “We expect more focus on execution over storytelling.” Capital will still be available, she said, but it will flow to teams that show traction, resilience, and real economics.

Casabal raised concerns about speculation and overreliance on AI, warning that outsourcing original work entirely to machines risks eroding human capability. “Used well, AI amplifies human capability; used indiscriminately, it erodes it,” she said.

Despite those cautions, optimism remains strong. “As long as we continue to collaborate and be as business friendly as possible, it is inevitable that we will be a global tech hub,” Mendez said.

Taken together, these perspectives suggest that 2026 won’t be defined by hype, but by proof: proof of adoption, proof of discipline, and proof that this next generation of companies can turn technological promise into lasting value.

Local investors on AI, exits, and what comes next for startups and South Florida

AI? Early, uneven, and moving from theory to practice

Will 2026 be the year of exits and IPOs?

South Florida is a maturing, but still evolving market

What will matter most in 2026?

READ MORE IN REFRESH MIAMI: